Solving the Right Problem
Solving the Right Problem#
In Douglas Adams’ comedic sci-fi classic Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, a race of hyperintelligent pandimensional beings set out to build a massive supercomputer the size of a city to solve the mysteries of the cosmos once and for all. When they turned on the computer, named Deep Thought, they announced that “the task we have designed you to perform is this. We want you to tell us… the Answer!” “The Answer?” said Deep Thought. “The Answer to what?” “Life!” urged one designer. “The Universe!” said another. “Everything!” they said in chorus.
Deep Thought paused, then answered, “Life, the Universe, and Everything. There is an answer. But,” Deep Thought added, “I’ll have to think about it.”
Seven and a half million years later, when Deep Thought had finally finished its calculations, the descendants of those designers assembled to learn the result of their ancestors’ work.
“Er …good morning, O Deep Thought,” said Loonquawl [one descendants] nervously, “do you have … er, that is …”
“An answer for you?” interrupted Deep Thought majestically. “Yes. I have.”
The two [descendants] shivered with expectancy. Their waiting had not been in vain.
“There really is one?” breathed Phouchg [the other descendant].
“There really is one,” confirmed Deep Thought.
“To Everything? To the great Question of Life, the Universe and Everything?”
“Yes. […] Though I don’t think,” added Deep Thought, “that you’re going to like it.”
“All right,” said the computer, and settled into silence again.
The two fidgeted.
The tension was unbearable.
“Forty-two,” said Deep Thought, with infinite majesty and calm.
“Forty-two!” yelled Loonquawl. “Is that all you’ve got to show for seven and a half million years’ work?”
“I checked it very thoroughly,” said the computer, “and that quite definitely is the answer. I think the problem, to be quite honest with you, is that you’ve never actually known what the question is.”
“But it was the Great Question! The Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe and Everything,” howled Loonquawl.
“Yes,” said Deep Thought with the air of one who suffers fools gladly, “but what actually is it?”
A slow stupefied silence crept over the men as they stared at the computer and then at each other.
“Well, you know, it’s just Everything … everything …” offered Phouchg weakly.
“Exactly!” said Deep Thought. “So once you do know what the question actually is, you’ll know what the answer means.”
We do data science to solve problems. And yet all too often data science projects fail not because their model accuracy was low or because of insufficient data, but rather because the problem the team solved wasn’t actually the problem that needed solving!
Why is this such a common issue? In part, it’s because properly specifying a problem is immensely difficult. To specify a problem properly requires understanding the issue, and often we call issues “problems” precisely because we don’t really understand them. There’s a reason that Charles Kettering, Head of Research at General Motors famously said “A problem well stated is a problem half solved.”
But there’s also a second reason more unique to data science, and especially to the work of young data scientists: excessive deference to stakeholders.
As a young data scientist, you will often be in the position of having to use your data science skills to help someone else. In this book, we will refer to any third party you are helping as your “stakeholder.” This may be your manager, your CEO, or someone at another company you are advising.1 And it will nearly always be the case that your job as a data scientist will be to solve a problem that has been brought to you by your stakeholder.
That in and of itself is fine—division of labor makes the modern economy work! The problem arises when data scientists assume that the problem statement their stakeholder has brought them is properly specified and that their job is to take that problem statement as given and run with it. Because your job as a data scientist isn’t to mindlessly solve the problem brought to you by your stakeholder—a central part of your job is to work with your stakeholder to identify the real problem they want solved and to ensure that the work you plan to do will bring real value.
Because all too often, young data scientists—like the Deep Thought computer in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy—spend weeks dutifully grinding away to solve a misspecified problem, only to deliver a result to their stakeholder that turns out to not actually be as helpful as expected.
At this point, you may be thinking “well, isn’t it their problem that they asked me to do the wrong thing?” And… yes, in some sense it is. But it’s also yours. And that’s because when you leave the classroom, you will won’t be evaluated on the complexity of your model or the aesthetics of your visualizations—you’ll be evaluated on whether you’ve made your stakeholder’s life better. And even if it was the stakeholder who originally misspecified their need, if you fail to correct that error and deliver a product that doesn’t help your stakeholder, then that’s what will be remembered.
Little Papa Dominos Has A Problem#
Our discussion up to this point has been a little abstract, so to illustrate what we mean by “mis-specifying a problem”, let’s work through an example. The details of this example are fictitious, but the underlying logic of this example is not; indeed, the insight illustrated by this example is central to one of the biggest pivots in how people think about online advertising.
You have been hired by the advertising division of a fictitious national pizza chain—let’s call it Little Papa Dominos. Little Papa Dominos spends a lot of money on online advertising, but they worry the money isn’t being used as effectively as it could be—they spend more than most of their competitors, and yet their online sales are lagging. After consulting industry groups and online advertising experts, they discover that their ads’ click-through rate (CTR, the percentage of ads that are shown to users that are actually clicked) is well below the average for food delivery services, suggesting that their ads aren’t very effective.
To address the problem, they’ve hired you—a newly minted Data Scientist—to improve the CTR of their ads. They give you a large budget, access to all the cloud computing resources you need, and a small staff.
“Well,” you reason, “maybe the problem is that our ads aren’t being shown to the right people. After all, it seems unlikely that any ad for pizza—no matter how appealing—is likely to draw a click if it’s shown to a 60-year-old at 7 am.” So you set out to answer the question: “What factors predict the likelihood that a user will click on one of our ads?” a classic passive-predictive question.
You and your team use your budget to run your ads in front of different types of users on different sites and at different times. You then use that data (and those glorious cloud computing resources) to train a machine learning model that predicts whether someone will click on one of your ads as a function of user demographics and ad placement.
Based on this analysis, you conclude that Little Papa Dominos has not been doing a very good job of targeting likely ad-clickers. You suggest they shift their ad spend to focus on the types of users your model predicts are likely to click on Little Papa Dominos ads.
And sure enough, almost immediately the data shows your CTR has increased 5-fold! Not only that, but the share of people who click on ads who end up actually buying a pizza has even increased. Everyone congratulates you, and you move on to the next project feeling very smug.
A few months later, though, you are called into a meeting with the Little Papa Dominos advertising team and the company’s Chief Financial Officer. They’ve been looking over the numbers, and despite the huge rise in CTR, their online sales business is doing worse than it was before your change to their system. CTR rates are still up, but somehow it isn’t generating more profits.
Can you figure out what went wrong?
OK, this is the place in most books where the authors ask you that question, and you look up at the ceiling for a minute, shrug, and then read on.
But I’m really, really serious about this: close your laptop, stand up, set a 5-minute timer on your phone, and go for a walk. Ponder this example and see if you can figure out what’s going on. This is precisely the kind of problem you will soon face as a professional data scientist, so why not practice trying to think through the problem here where you can check your work?
Solving The Wrong Problem#
The reason increasing clicks wasn’t making Little Papa Dominos richer is that Little Papa Dominos’ problem wasn’t that their ads had a low CTR; their real problem was that not many people were buying pizzas online.
And because Little Papa Domino’s problem wasn’t a low CTR, the question that needed to be answered was not “who is most likely to click on an ad.” The question that needed to be answered was “what users are most likely to decide to buy a pizza (who wasn’t already going to buy a pizza) if I show them an ad?”
The difference is subtle, but crucially important: showing an ad to someone and having them click it doesn’t mean the ad made Little Papa Dominos any money; in fact, having someone click an ad and buy a pizza doesn’t even mean the ad made Little Papa Dominos money. Little Papa Dominos only makes money if someone who wasn’t already planning to buy a pizza decides to buy a pizza because of an ad.
Or, expressed the way we normally frame causal statements: an ad only makes Little Papa Dominos money if the ad causes someone to buy a pizza.
Why are these so different? Because the best way to get someone to click an ad for your company is to show it to someone who was probably going to buy your product anyway. In the case of Little Papa Dominos, for example, you can probably get the best CTR by showing ads to college students at 10 pm who were searching the name of your company. But does that make you any money? No, because most of those people were going to end up on your site anyway!
Causal Inference in Advertising#
As noted at the beginning of this example, while Little Papa Dominos is not a real company, this realization—that in online advertising, our goal is not to show ads to the people most likely to click on the ad, but rather the people whose behavior is most likely to be changed by the ad—has had a huge impact on how online advertising works, and how people evaluate the success of ad campaigns.
Indeed, this is also why companies like Meta and Google are so eager to track user behavior across apps and websites. When Meta and Google are able to “follow” users after they’ve clicked an ad, they can evaluate ad performance based not on clicks but on customer behavior. And when paired with their ability to show ads to some users and not to others and compare the customer behavior of both groups (something we’ll talk about more soon), Meta and Google cause estimate the true effect of ads on sales, allowing them to charge more for their ad spots and use the data to improve ad targeting.
Solving The Real Problem#
So how to we avoid solving the wrong problem? There are (sorry) no hard and fast rules for how to avoid this kind of problem, but here’s a simple road map:
Start a conversation about the problem.
Propose a question to answer.
Step 1: Start a Conversation#
Begin by having a discussion about the goals of your project. As noted above, the first step to avoiding mis-specified problems is to just recognize that helping to properly specify the problem is part of your job. Remember: you’ve been hired precisely because of your expertise in solving problems with data, so speak up. Suggest different ways of stating the problem. Ask about different “deliverables” you could provide and ask why they might or might not solve the stakeholders problem (even if a suggestion gets shot down, the reason the problem is shot down will teach you something).
For example, suppose you are approached by a real estate group interested in developments in the United Kingdom. They tell you:
We do a lot of work building large residential buildings. One problem we often have is that after we start digging the foundations of our buildings, we discover that we’re actually on top of ancient ruins of some sort that the stupid government wants to preserve for stupid posterity. Then we have to spend piles of money to have archeologists come to dig out these old bones with toothbrushes, all of which also puts us behind schedule. So what we want you to do is design a machine learning algorithm that we can use to detect archeological sites from the ground penetrating radar scans we do after we’ve cleared out a job site, so we can avoid digging foundations in the spots on our plots where archeological sites might be located.
So what does this stakeholder want you to do? At first glance, it might seem like the answer is “develop a machine learning algorithm for detecting archeological sites in ground penetrating radar scans”.
But it seems like it’d be much more helpful and cost-effective if you could make a guess about whether there are archeological sites at a location before the company buys the land and clears away the existing buildings!
So what would I propose to a stakeholder like this? I would say: “If I could tell you the likelihood that an archeological site is under a plot of land you’re thinking about buying, would that be more helpful to you?”
Now to be clear, you may not always be right in your assessment. They may come back and say “No, sorry—there’s this other consideration we didn’t explain initially” (like “we’ve already bought all this land. We’re committed.”). But before diving in, you always want to be sure you’re solving the right problem. And you should never assume that the problem to be addressed has been properly specified.
Beware Technical Suggestions#
It’s remarkable how often stakeholders will come to you with a vague conception of a problem they are facing and an over-formed idea of how they think you can solve their problem using data science (a solution that will almost certainly invoke the magic of “machine learning” or “AI”).
But remember: most people ask data scientists for help because they don’t know much about data science, or worse they think they know a lot about data science, but don’t. Again, different rules apply if you’re at Google or Apple, but in most contexts, it’s a good idea to treat implementation details provided by the client as a red herring. Focus on the stakeholder’s actual needs, and only think about implementation once you feel you understand the problem well.
In the example above, for example, I would argue that the real need of the real estate company is to know where archeological sites are likely to be located, full stop. Finding a way to identify archeological remains in ground radar scans might help them, but is it (a) feasible and (b) the best choice?
Training a supervised machine learning algorithm requires labeled training data, which in this case would mean ground penetrating radar scans of identified-but-not-yet-excavated-ruins. And it’s not at all clear such data could be obtained.
Moreover, there’s presumably LOTS of public data on where archeological sites have been found in the past, and there’s a good chance a basic GIS analysis of already-found sites could tell you a lot (and for a lot less money!).
Step 2: Propose A Question To Answer#
Once you think you understand your stakeholder’s need, the next step is propose a question you plan to answer to your stakeholder. In our prior example, I might ask the real estate agent: “if I could answer the question: for any given real estate plot, what’s the probability the site contains archeological ruins? would that solve your problem?”
This strategy is critical because data science tools aren’t designed to solve problems; they answer questions. And so to have any hope of successfully solving the problem presented by your stakeholder, you must first determine what questions, if answered, would help solve the problem at hand. And when you propose a question you plan to answer, it helps make clear to the stakeholder what you’ll be delivering, and helps them evaluate whether your plan of action makes sense.
Make Your Questions Specific and Actionable#
In developing your questions, it is important to make them specific and actionable. A specific and actionable question is one that makes it very clear what you need to do next. For example, suppose an international aid organization told you they were worried that urbanization in Africa, Asia and Latin America was impacting efforts to reduce infant mortality. Some examples of specific, actionable questions are: “Is infant mortality higher among recent migrants to urban centers, controlling for income?” or “are the causes of infant mortality among recent migrants to urban centers different from those living in rural area?” Reading those questions, you can probably immediately think of what data you’d need to collect, and what regressions you’d want to run to generate answers to those questions.
Vague questions would be “is urbanization impacting efforts to reduce infant mortality?”, or “does urbanization affect infant mortality?” Note that when you read these, they don’t seem to obviously imply a way forward.
Perhaps the best way to figure out if your question is answerable is to write down what an answer to your question would look like. Seriously – try it. Can you write down, on a piece of paper, the graph, regression table, or machine learning diagnostic statistics (complete with labels on your axes, names for variables, etc.) that would constitute an answer to your question? If not, it’s probably too vague!
Step 3: Iterate#
And here’s the last but perhaps most important step: iterate. Bring your work back to your stakeholder as often as possible. Many stakeholders find the idea of data science mysterious and abstract, and will struggle to understand what is and is not feasible. By bringing them intermediate results, the whole process will start to become more concrete for the stakeholder, and it will help them provide you with better feedback.
If you’re lucky enough to not be directly answerable to someone else, either because you work for yourself or because you’re in a field that gives you substantial autonomy like academia, just think of your “stakeholder” as yourself.